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Invading Ukraine was a major strategic blunder. Backing Iran could be an even bigger miscalculation
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to provide military backing to Iran in its deepening confrontation with Israel could prove to be an even greater strategic disaster than his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine.
Political expediency has been the driving force behind the military alliance between the Kremlin and the ayatollahs that has developed during the past two years.
While Russia has a long history of involvement with Tehran, dating back to the Soviet era, the relationship has often been dogged by mutual suspicion, especially by the Iranians who have bitter memories of Moscow’s centuries-old desire to subjugate the country to its will. Despite this, the two countries have cooperated closely on a number of issues since the 1979 Iranian revolution, not least on the nuclear front, where Moscow made a significant contribution to building Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor in the Gulf. This support was maintained despite the Kremlin’s deep reservations about Iran’s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons.
Moscow has also provided technical assistance in other sensitive areas, such as ballistic missile development. Tehran’s arsenal of Shahab ballistic missiles, for example, is based on Moscow’s Soviet-era Scud missiles.
The relationship has, though, moved to an entirely new level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when the international isolation Moscow suffered as a result of its unprovoked aggression forced it to forge even closer ties to Tehran.
The disastrous consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in Iran providing the Kremlin with practical assistance in avoiding Western sanctions. In particular, Tehran, which has much expertise in avoiding sanctions owing to its own classification as a rogue state, has helped Russia to establish a “dark fleet” of untraceable tankers that has enabled it to maintain vital oil and gas exports.
In return, Moscow has negotiated a series of lucrative arms contracts with Tehran, with Iran providing vital military support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, including the Iranian-made drones that are regularly used to target Ukrainian infrastructure.
Now, with the drums of war between Iran and Israel growing ever louder, Iran is turning to Moscow to repay the favour by providing it with vital military hardware.
Many Western leaders believe the dramatic escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel following last week’s assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh will lead to renewed conflict, with the expectation that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terror group based in southern Lebanon, will intensify its bombardment of northern Israel.
Given the humiliation Iran suffered in April, when Israeli warplanes easily evaded Iranian air defences and bombed a key military base in Isfahan, the Iranian regime is, understandably, keen to bolster its defences. It was a point new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian was keen to stress when Putin’s personal envoy, former defence minister Sergei Shoigu, visited Tehran earlier this week. As well as seeking extra supplies of Russian air defence equipment, Iran is keen to acquire SU-35 fighter jets.
While Putin, after all the military backing Iran has given to the Ukraine war effort, will find it hard to resist Tehran’s appeals for help, it is clear that the Russian leader has reservations about supporting Iran’s increasingly bellicose attitude towards Israel.
The Kremlin’s disquiet is evident from Putin’s personal message to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asking Iran to show restraint and not attack Israeli civilians, a somewhat ironic request given Moscow’s own lack of interest in avoiding civilian casualties in Ukraine.
For Putin, providing military support for Iran is not without complications, not least the impact it could have with his long-standing friendship with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
During the Syrian civil war, for example, the alliance between Putin and Netanyahu often resulted in Russian forces turning a blind eye when Israel attacked Iranian positions in Syrian territory controlled by the Russian military, even though the Iranians were fighting alongside the Russians to keep Syria’s Assad regime in power. At a time when Russia is already suffering from the effects of international isolation, any military support Putin provides to Iran risks damaging his important bilateral ties with the Israelis.
Another factor that will influence Putin’s calculations is his realisation that, in any confrontation between Israel and Iran, the ayatollahs are guaranteed to end up on the losing side.
Iran’s preference for relying on proxy terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, to fight on its behalf is based on the knowledge that, in a direct war with Israel, the Iranians are no match for Israel’s military superiority. This was clearly evident last April when Iran launched its first direct assault on Israel, only to see its 300-strong barrage of missiles and drones easily intercepted by Israel and its allies –including the UK.
After the major strategic blunder Putin made by launching his invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian leader cannot afford to make another potentially calamitous error of judgment by backing Iran in a war with Israel, one the Iranians have no chance of winning.